Why Jay Cutler is NOT the pick

[fromthetop2]

Two interesting stats that point to Jay Cutler not being the best pick for the Titans- despite the "hometown" sentiment.

 

Stat Fact #1. If Jay Cutler is drafted in the first round, he will have the worst winning percentage as a QB drafted since 1982.

 

From 1982-2004, there have been 47 QB's drafted in the first round. No one drafted in the first round would've quarterbacked his teams to worse records his final two collegiate years than Cutler. While the common defense is that "What would Lienart do with Vandy's offense," it falls flat on it's face when you examine that many teams had QB's drafted during this period that would not be considered football factories- yet they produced better won/loss records than Cutler. Cal-Davis (O'Brien), Tulane (Ramsey, Losman), and San Diego State (McGwire) are some of the few. The red flag here for GM's is that Cutler may not have the "winning experience" necessary.

 

Stat Fact #2. Cutler's accuracy is average- and accuracy is one of the top indicators of NFL success.

 

In the 2006 NFL Draft, three QBs are expected to be taken in the top 10, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and Jay Cutler.

 

Leinart has completed 63%, 65%, and 66% as a three-year starter at USC. Vince Young completed 59% and 65% in his junior and senior years at Texas. Finally Jay Cutler, who had a "great" Senior Bowl. I was there and didn't see "great".

His Senior Bowl included going 6-19 in the actual game. At Vanderbilt, Cutler completed 49%, 57%, 61%, and 59%.

 

Cutler's accuracy compares more favorably with other QB's taken in the first round: Jim Druckenmiller (57% as a senior), Ryan Leaf (56%), Cade McNown (58%) and Akili Smith (58%). It also must be pointed out that Tim Couch completed 67% of his passes his Senior Year- and never made it. Actually, the best comparison to Cutler is Ramsey (60%, 59%, and 57%).

 

Cutler's accuracy is decent, but not great- and certainly weak when compared to his opposing 1st round draftees.

[bballer13]

Valid points...

 

Some of the accuracy problems could come from wide recievers dropping passes....

[polk_wildcat]

Valid points...

 

Some of the accuracy problems could come from wide recievers dropping passes....

 

Edited April 2, 2006 by polk_wildcat

[fromthetop2]

Receivers drop passes all of the time.

I don't recall that being a rap against Erik Davis or their stud freshman, so I don't think that it is a huge reason why his percentage was not better. I believe it could be argued that his receivers were better this year than last- yet his percentage wasn't.

[Bigdust100]

he played on a mediocre team so that explains his win% and he was 44 of 45 on his pro day and it was a very windy day i watched it he has no accuracy problems or arm strength problems

[gotmilk?]

Well Cutler didnt exactly have a future pro-bowl O-line, two first round RB, and two future NFL WR to throw to! Comparing Leinart to Cutler is like comparing apples to oranges! Cutler faced defenses like Tennessee, Florida, Geogia, and South Carolina! Leinart faced........Notre Dame and Texas And USC lost to Texas and Leinarts numbers where not that good against ND!

 

Cutler will do fine in the NFL! Its like I have said several times, if you can play, you can play put all the other crap aside!!!

[fromthetop2]

Throwing in a controlled environment is far different than throwing in a game.

These statistics are facts and not fiction. I am also not the only one to uncover these numbers and have concerns.

 

Cutler also threw against Wake Forest, MTSU, Navy, Eastern KY and the like as well. Leinart and Young didn't throw against that collection of football factories during their careers.

[gotmilk?]

I cant say much for Vince, because he excelled against most top teams he played! But as for Leinart, I mean the man didnt have alot of defense to face and that O-Line give him passing lanes that I could throw through!

 

I think all three will be NFL QB's!!!

[fromthetop2]

Oh, I have no doubts that all three will make it in the NFL. It just depends on what degree.

A high number of NFL QB's taken in the first round don't pan out- and the reasons vary. It just might be someone like Charlie Whitehurst has a more memorable career than at least one, maybe two, of the "Big Three."

 

I just feel the facts are intriguing. I also feel a "snow job" when it comes to Cutler in putting him up with Leinart or Young.

[gotmilk?]

Oh, I have no doubts that all three will make it in the NFL. It just depends on what degree.

A high number of NFL QB's taken in the first round don't pan out- and the reasons vary. It just might be someone like Charlie Whitehurst has a more memorable career than at least one, maybe two, of the "Big Three."

 

I just feel the facts are intriguing. I also feel a "snow job" when it comes to Cutler in putting him up with Leinart or Young.

 

I think Leinart would be my first choice with Young and Cutler being neck and neck!!

[bballer13]

I like Young, Cutler then Leinart,,,,,

[fromthetop2]

Interesting fact from Gil Brandt that I heard reported today.

 

In the history of the NFL draft, only one QB has been drafted in the first round that had a losing career record.

 

Tommy Kramer (Rice) 1976 Minnesota Vikings.

 

Jay Cutler would be the second.