5-A playoffs (may get very interesting)

[GWAVE1]

After looking at some of the possibilities, I see some potential question marks. Will 5-5 get you in? If so Centennial and Station Camp could both finish 5-5. Without trying to figure out the other side of the bracket, that could leave 17 looking at the West side instead of what is now reguarded as the 16 front runners? With Morristown West losing how does that affect seeding? QBclubPrez your insight may be needed. What is everybody's opinion?

[crawdad]

After looking at some of the possibilities, I see some potential question marks. Will 5-5 get you in? If so Centennial and Station Camp could both finish 5-5. Without trying to figure out the other side of the bracket, that could leave 17 looking at the West side instead of what is now reguarded as the 16 front runners? With Morristown West losing how does that affect seeding? QBclubPrez your insight may be needed. What is everybody's opinion?

Mo-West will still be the #1 in quad 1. There won't be 32 teams in 5A with minimum 5 wins. Anderson Co. will not make it. Centennial will make it. Cocke Co will have to beat Cherokee to get in. Mo-East and Catholic will hang on and get in with only 4 wins and Boone sneaks in with only 4 if Cocke Co. comes up short. Station Camp looks solid to me.

Teams in a quad can vary somewhat so I wouldn't get too caught up in who the west 16 are. It all depends on who the final 32 are and how they are broken out. How they are designated on these early projections gives us some idea what TSSAA is thinking. It can change a lot though if someone like a Cocke Co. in quad 1 loses in week 10 and falls out of the 32 and someone like Bartlett in quad 4 wins to get in the 32 on the last weekend. A similar scenario would likely affect the final 8 in each of the 4 quads on the final weekend.

[QBClubPrez]

Mo-West will still be the #1 in quad 1. There won't be 32 teams in 5A with minimum 5 wins. Anderson Co. will not make it. Centennial will make it. Cocke Co will have to beat Cherokee to get in. Mo-East and Catholic will hang on and get in with only 4 wins and Boone sneaks in with only 4 if Cocke Co. comes up short. Station Camp looks solid to me.

Teams in a quad can vary somewhat so I wouldn't get too caught up in who the west 16 are. It all depends on who the final 32 are and how they are broken out. How they are designated on these early projections gives us some idea what TSSAA is thinking. It can change a lot though if someone like a Cocke Co. in quad 1 loses in week 10 and falls out of the 32 and someone like Bartlett in quad 4 wins to get in the 32 on the last weekend. A similar scenario would likely affect the final 8 in each of the 4 quads on the final weekend.

 

While everything you say...I agree with...Morristown West better hope that Cocke County gets in or at least 8 5A teams east of Powell...otherwise...Powell will be the number 1 seed in Quad 1 over Morristown West. However..if you feel Mo. East will get in...that should cross out Cocke County whether they beat Cherokee or not.

[GWAVE1]

While everything you say...I agree with...Morristown West better hope that Cocke County gets in or at least 8 5A teams east of Powell...otherwise...Powell will be the number 1 seed in Quad 1 over Morristown West. However..if you feel Mo. East will get in...that should cross out Cocke County whether they beat Cherokee or not.

Not sure if it affects anything but does winning your district effect your seed? For instance would you put Dyer Co. at a #1 in quad 4 and Henry Co in quad 3, Columbia now with Morristwon West losing in quad 2 and Powell in quad 1. All district winners getting a #1. I am not sure if 4-6 will get you in. If none of those senerios matter, my wishful thinking, wants Gallatin at a #1 in quad 3. With Hendersonville, Beech, Station Camp, Springfield, Glenclff, Antioch, and Centennial.

[crawdad]

Not sure if it affects anything but does winning your district effect your seed? For instance would you put Dyer Co. at a #1 in quad 4 and Henry Co in quad 3, Columbia now with Morristwon West losing in quad 2 and Powell in quad 1. All district winners getting a #1. I am not sure if 4-6 will get you in. If none of those senerios matter, my wishful thinking, wants Gallatin at a #1 in quad 3. With Hendersonville, Beech, Station Camp, Springfield, Glenclff, Antioch, and Centennial.

I have 15 teams in 5A with at least 5 wins. 11 more that look like cannot miss to reach at least 5 wins. Craigmont and Bartlett finish the season against one another which should be a 5th win for one, so that makes a total of 27 that look in on paper now.

Craigmont could lose to Bartlett and already have won their 5th prior to that game, so both could qualify. Bartlett also is strong enough in the tie breaker category to get in with only 4, as are Mo East, Catholic, or Boone from quad 1. Others who could make it to 5 wins are Cocke Co. ,Anderson Co. and Cleveland. I do not believe any of these can get in with only 4 wins. Lenior City and/or Boone may get in with a 5th win or be high enough in the tie breaker to get in with only4.

 

I know QBclubPrez and I had this debate last year about 4 win teams not getting in but I believe 3 made it last year. I guess we could go back and check if someone wants to research it. I would love to see the stat for last year and this year currently on 6A vs 5A. That is the main reason 6A teams do not qualify with losing records but the tougher scheduled 5A teams sneak in with 4-6 records. I believe 6A vs 5A is probably .750 winning pct. Anybody know?

[football2011]

Yes, things WILL get very interesting. As a Station Camp Bison parent, I would love to see us get in at 5-5. We sit at 3-5 right now with a trip to Wilson Central and a home game to close out the regular season against Portland. We've got a great chance to finish 5-5 and play our way into the playoffs. I'll be very interested to see how far we will fall from the loss against MJ. Yes, they're undefeated, and yes, they are 6A, but Gallatin dropped 4 or 5 spots after their home loss to MJ. I know a lot goes in to how teams do in front of and behind you but I see us dropping to 29 or 30 based on how many teams ranked 18-30 picked up win 3 or 4. Station Camp has a bye this week so that could hurt us as well but we just need to win out and let the formula work itself out.

 

I think the Bison would love another crack at Gallatin, Hendersonville, or Beech and would welcome a matchup against any Metro school. We need to take care of business against Wilson Central and Portland and let the rest work itself out.

[QBClubPrez]

After looking at some of the possibilities, I see some potential question marks. Will 5-5 get you in? If so Centennial and Station Camp could both finish 5-5. Without trying to figure out the other side of the bracket, that could leave 17 looking at the West side instead of what is now reguarded as the 16 front runners? With Morristown West losing how does that affect seeding? QBclubPrez your insight may be needed. What is everybody's opinion?

While I'm in no way an expert in the playoff format....I do feel I have a pretty good understanding of the system as to who will qualify. At this point...Antioch will probably finish 5-5 as they have 3 games left including Overton and Columbia (games they will probably not win)and a game against Cane Ridge..a game they should win putting the Bears at 5-5. Same holds true for the Bison of Station Camp...after this week's bye...they play Wilson Central and Portland...with two wins they too will finish 5-5.

 

It looks like each team qualifying from District 10-AAA except Henry County..will finish 6-4...including Springfield(after surviving a scare from Kenwood 27-26), Northeast, and Clarksville! Springfield finishes up with the worst two district teams in West Creek and Northwest putting the Jackets at 6-4 with wins over both, Clarksville finishes with Dickson County, Rossview, and Kenwood...if they win 2 out of 3...they will be 6-4 (if they beat Dickson Co. as well..they could get to 7-3)...and Northeast finishes up with Paducah Tilghman, Kenwood, and Northwest...again...2 out of 3 wins...Northeast will finish 6-4.

 

Nonetheless...there will be a few 5-5 teams in the playoffs...as you said GWAVE1...it's gonna be interesting to see who those teams are!

[92Dragon]

I still think Columbia and Powell are the teams to beat, but both are beatable.

[QBClubPrez]

Not sure if it affects anything but does winning your district effect your seed? For instance would you put Dyer Co. at a #1 in quad 4 and Henry Co in quad 3, Columbia now with Morristwon West losing in quad 2 and Powell in quad 1. All district winners getting a #1. I am not sure if 4-6 will get you in. If none of those senerios matter, my wishful thinking, wants Gallatin at a #1 in quad 3. With Hendersonville, Beech, Station Camp, Springfield, Glenclff, Antioch, and Centennial.

 

While I do not believe that "winning the district" directly affects seeding....your "wishful thinking" is a likely scenerio. Of course..the 1st and 2nd place finishers in a certain district makes a team an "automatic quailfier"...overall wins is the first factor as to seeding...the second factor is teams on the schedule that won 50% of their games...and so on. Dyer County is not a "number 1 seed" calibur team in my opinion..they dropped a game to 4A Liberty and have yet to play 6A/District rival Brighton who is 7-1 ranked in the top 10 in 6A and a game that Dyer County must play on the road. They will likely finish the season 8-2.

 

Furthermore...it is my belief that all 32 teams are divided FIRST by 4 geographic quadrants prior to seeding the 32 teams. Thus...all you must be in the best team (by the forementioned criteria) of the 8 to be seeded number 1 in a specific Quad. Is this not your understanding GWAVE?

Edited October 10, 2011 by QBClubPrez

[crawdad]

While I do not believe that "winning the district" directly affects seeding....your "wishful thinking" is a likely scenerio. Of course..the 1st and 2nd place finishers in a certain district makes a team an "automatic quailfier"...overall wins is the first factor as to seeding...the second factor is teams on the schedule that won 50% of their games...and so on. Dyer County is not a "number 1 seed" calibur team in my opinion..they dropped a game to 4A Liberty and have yet to play 6A/District rival Brighton who is 7-1 ranked in the top 10 in 6A and a game that Dyer County must play on the road. They will likely finish the season 8-2.

 

Furthermore...it is my belief that all 32 teams are divided FIRST by 4 geographic quadrants prior to seeding the 32 teams. Thus...all you must be in the best team (by the forementioned criteria) of the 8 to be seeded number 1 in a specific Quad. Is this not your understanding GWAVE?

I believed as you concerning seeding QBClubPrez. But DNJKreager posted from the TSSAA handbook that once the 32 teams are subdivided into the 4 quads of 8 geographically, district winners are given 1st priority, districts runners-up are given 2nd priority, and then the playoff rankings per TSSAA finish out the seeding. In 5A this wrinkle is less likely to come into play because the 6A teams usually rule the district races. It was pointed out to me by DNJKreager however that Antioch should finish 2nd in their district with a probable 5-5 record and jump some teams with better records for higher seeding in their quad because of this wrinkle.

[QBClubPrez]

I believed as you concerning seeding QBClubPrez. But DNJKreager posted from the TSSAA handbook that once the 32 teams are subdivided into the 4 quads of 8 geographically, district winners are given 1st priority, districts runners-up are given 2nd priority, and then the playoff rankings per TSSAA finish out the seeding. In 5A this wrinkle is less likely to come into play because the 6A teams usually rule the district races. It was pointed out to me by DNJKreager however that Antioch should finish 2nd in their district with a probable 5-5 record and jump some teams with better records for higher seeding in their quad because of this wrinkle.

 

Ahhhh yes Crawdad...this is the "wrinkle" placed into action this year as a result of Brentwood High's 8th seed last year after them winning their district I believe (the Bruins were VERY upset with their draw)...nonetheless..as you say..I don't see it a big deal!

 

Also..you are further correct in that (at this stage of the season) most of the AAA Districts are lead by 6A postseason teams. Districts 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, & 14 are all examples of what you speak of. The exceptions are Districts 3 (Powell), 8 (Columbia), 10 (Henry County), 13 (Dyer County), 15 (Ridgeway), & 16 (Memphis East).

Edited October 10, 2011 by QBClubPrez

[kwc]

Ahhhh yes Crawdad...this is the "wrinkle" placed into action this year as a result of Brentwood High's 8th seed last year after them winning their district I believe (the Bruins were VERY upset with their draw)...nonetheless..as you say..I don't see it a big deal!

 

Also..you are further correct in that (at this stage of the season) most of the AAA Districts are lead by 6A postseason teams. Districts 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, & 14 are all examples of what you speak of. The exceptions are Districts 3 (Powell), 8 (Columbia), 10 (Henry County), 13 (Dyer County), 15 (Ridgeway), & 16 (Memphis East).

 

QBClubPrez ... actually, Whitehaven is the leader of District 16 and not Memphis East. I know they may be listed above Whitehaven on CoachT, but in the category of overall records they, Memphis East, have one loss while Whitehaven is currently undefeated. Both are undefeated in district play however, and in the case of a district tie, CoachT always list the teams in alphabetical order. It doesn't really amount to a hill of beans at this point, but I thought you should know just the same.