another indignity for D2

[rollredroll]

All of this talk about state title games and television and statewide interest (or lack thereof) got me thinking today (read: slow day at work a day before a holiday), so I did some number-crunching. I'm sure most people don't care about the details, so I will not even bother posting the output. Nevertheless, in summary, here's what I did:

 

I looked at all state title games from 1997 (beginning of DII) through 2006 (the last year for which we have attendance figures for all classes' title games) and then calculated the number of fans in attendance per combined enrollment of the two participants. The impetus for this calculation was all this talk about how low DII state title game attendances have been (and as a point of emphasis, I looked at only the large class DII game given the lack of continuity in number of classes - two initially, then three, and now two again). We need to remember that in the large DII title game, 15 of the 22 finalists have been Brentwood Academy and MBA, schools with DI 1A and 2A-like enrollments of 446 and 462, respectively (and no, you do not multiply or gross up MBA times two for being single sex, because we're looking at actual numbers of high school students for this exercise). I assumed this metric would give a relative normalized view of "interest" in these games, factoring in the disparity in enrollments among the different classes (and yes, Bighurt, I even normalized the attendance of the 2003 game to one-third of the announced 14,500, where I was in attendance and know the count was not that high).

 

Basically, the results over a 10-year period yielded that DII "interest" is about middle of the road. DI-A had the best numbers, not surprising given (1) likely attendance from I-AA fans and (2) the general total town support that the small schools have. DI-AA had the next best numbers. Going to Saturday, DI-AAA was marginally better than DII (I'm sure DI-AAA also has the same bump that 1A has), and DII was well ahead of DI-AAAA and DI-AAAAA (DI-AAAA was in the cellar - likely the Maryville effect of "been there, done that"). Attendees per students in the schools - is that not a better indicator of general, impartial interest?

 

Like I said, slow day at work. /laugh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":lol:" border="0" alt="laugh.gif" />

 

I certainly don't claim these calculations to be totally scientific, and there are so many factors to consider, including:

 

1) financial wherewithal to travel

2) familiarity (repeat games, repeat participants; e.g., Maryville, Alcoa, Fulton, Riverdale, DLHS, BA, MBA)

3) weather

4) conflicting events (e.g., heart of college football season versus the end, big city vs. little city amenities, etc.)

5) availability, or lack thereof, of television

 

Nevertheless, I just find it hard to believe that "lack of statewide interest" is a factor in a Comcast's decision whether or not to televise DII games. As Antwan previously said and brbb opined, there is less overall interest now than pre-split - a look at the TSSAA website that shows attendances before and after split clearly shows this. And, to take a contrarian view of attendance numbers, I would think less people in attendance would signal a larger TV market to tap.

[silverpie]

The Baylor McCallie game regularly draws over 10,000 at Finley. That is most years unless Baylor attempts a home field advantage and holds the game at Baylor - to no avail. Of course, unless the Baylor School for Boys and Girls upgrades their major sport, this combination will never occur in a title game.

 

 

Interesting point--in my experience, Baylor makes quite an effort not to have "a" major sport, but instead to do well across the board. Fan perceptions may of course differ.

[Indian]

All of this talk about state title games and television and statewide interest (or lack thereof) got me thinking today (read: slow day at work a day before a holiday), so I did some number-crunching. I'm sure most people don't care about the details, so I will not even bother posting the output. Nevertheless, in summary, here's what I did:

 

I looked at all state title games from 1997 (beginning of DII) through 2006 (the last year for which we have attendance figures for all classes' title games) and then calculated the number of fans in attendance per combined enrollment of the two participants. The impetus for this calculation was all this talk about how low DII state title game attendances have been (and as a point of emphasis, I looked at only the large class DII game given the lack of continuity in number of classes - two initially, then three, and now two again). We need to remember that in the large DII title game, 15 of the 22 finalists have been Brentwood Academy and MBA, schools with DI 1A and 2A-like enrollments of 446 and 462, respectively (and no, you do not multiply or gross up MBA times two for being single sex, because we're looking at actual numbers of high school students for this exercise). I assumed this metric would give a relative normalized view of "interest" in these games, factoring in the disparity in enrollments among the different classes (and yes, Bighurt, I even normalized the attendance of the 2003 game to one-third of the announced 14,500, where I was in attendance and know the count was not that high).

 

Basically, the results over a 10-year period yielded that DII "interest" is about middle of the road. DI-A had the best numbers, not surprising given (1) likely attendance from I-AA fans and (2) the general total town support that the small schools have. DI-AA had the next best numbers. Going to Saturday, DI-AAA was marginally better than DII (I'm sure DI-AAA also has the same bump that 1A has), and DII was well ahead of DI-AAAA and DI-AAAAA (DI-AAAA was in the cellar - likely the Maryville effect of "been there, done that"). Attendees per students in the schools - is that not a better indicator of general, impartial interest?

 

Like I said, slow day at work. /laugh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":lol:" border="0" alt="laugh.gif" />

 

I certainly don't claim these calculations to be totally scientific, and there are so many factors to consider, including:

 

1) financial wherewithal to travel

2) familiarity (repeat games, repeat participants; e.g., Maryville, Alcoa, Fulton, Riverdale, DLHS, BA, MBA)

3) weather

4) conflicting events (e.g., heart of college football season versus the end, big city vs. little city amenities, etc.)

5) availability, or lack thereof, of television

 

Nevertheless, I just find it hard to believe that "lack of statewide interest" is a factor in a Comcast's decision whether or not to televise DII games. As Antwan previously said and brbb opined, there is less overall interest now than pre-split - a look at the TSSAA website that shows attendances before and after split clearly shows this. And, to take a contrarian view of attendance numbers, I would think less people in attendance would signal a larger TV market to tap.

 

 

 

Division II should have higher numbers attending than what's been happening since BA and MBA took part so often. Think of the numbers Melrose would have if the game was in the Liberty Bowl, or South Pittsburg would have if the game was in Chattanooga.

[Indian]

Interesting point--in my experience, Baylor makes quite an effort not to have "a" major sport, but instead to do well across the board. Fan perceptions may of course differ.

 

 

 

They had around 20 football players sign over a four or five year period so they've had the players, for whatever reason that didn't carry over to the field. I agree they do have an all around good program but I don't remember girls and boys basketball doing well lately and those are the highest profile sports for each sex after football. Swimming isn't going to get a lot of parents' attention if sports is part of the decision making on a school.

[Bighurt]

I know this is a sidebar discussion but my point is that attendance numbers indicate that 1A and 2A title games almost alway outdraw the D2 AAA title games. I know that MBA, BA, Baylor and McCallie enrollment-wise would be 1A or 2A in D1 and that is a logical explanation why this is. However, regular season games like MBA/BA, MBA/Ryan and Baylor/McCallie historically outdraw state championship games involving those same schools. All those MBA, BA, Baylor and McCallie alumni who come to home games apparently don't show up at state championship games.

 

I remember in the old bowl games days before state playoffs the Clinic Bowl would never match up 2 private schools (a BGA/MBA matchup in 1966 comes to mind - BGA went that year) because of the fear that attendance would suffer.

 

I honestly don't know why Comcast or whomever chooses not to broadcast D2 championship games in football or basketball. I do think that in the interest of fairness the TSSAA at least owns the D2 an explanation as to why their games are excluded. I also think that scheduling mid-week championship games for D2 only is unfair.

 

JMHO

[rollredroll]

Division II should have higher numbers attending than what's been happening since BA and MBA took part so often. Think of the numbers Melrose would have if the game was in the Liberty Bowl, or South Pittsburg would have if the game was in Chattanooga.

 

 

Fair enough, but that also would underscore how relatively poor attendance has been in Riverdale 5A title games.

 

Fans per enrolled students in MBA-BA games:

 

'98: 3.5

'00: 4.4

'02: 3.4

'03: 4.4

 

Fans per enrolled students in Riverdale games:

 

'97: 2.5

'00: 4.0

'01: 3.8

'02: 1.5

'03: 1.3

'04: 2.1

 

Note: to be fair, I should point out that I used 2006 enrollment figures for all calculations, as it really wasn't worth it to go back and check enrollments at the time games were played. However, keep in mind that the differences are likely not enough to affect the underlying results, and all sets of schools would be benefited (assuming that all of the schools have had some sort of increase in enrollment over time).

[Bighurt]

Fair enough, but that also would underscore how relatively poor attendance has been in Riverdale 5A title games.

 

Fans per enrolled students in MBA-BA games:

 

'98: 3.5

'00: 4.4

'02: 3.4

'03: 4.4

 

Fans per enrolled students in Riverdale games:

 

'97: 2.5

'00: 4.0

'01: 3.8

'02: 1.5

'03: 1.3

'04: 2.1

 

Note: to be fair, I should point out that I used 2006 enrollment figures for all calculations, as it really wasn't worth it to go back and check enrollments at the time games were played. However, keep in mind that the differences are likely not enough to affect the underlying results, and all sets of schools would be benefited (assuming that all of the schools have had some sort of increase in enrollment over time).

 

I accept your calculations. These numbers tell me that percentage-wise MBA, BA, etc. get better fan support than the vast majority of schools. BTW, the ratio for the 2000 1A game (CPA/USJ) using 2006 numbers was 7.7. /biggrin.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":D" border="0" alt="biggrin.gif" />

 

However from a business prospective using 2004 as an example, would you rather sponsor a game with 4,000 (D2 AAA) people in attendance or a game with 7,670 (5A) in attendance regardless of the size of the schools?

 

I was a Math major so it is not hard for me to "do the Math". /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

[rollredroll]

I accept your calculations. These numbers tell me that percentage-wise MBA, BA, etc. get better fan support than the vast majority of schools. BTW, the ratio for the 2000 1A game (CPA/USJ) using 2006 numbers was 7.7. /biggrin.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":D" border="0" alt="biggrin.gif" />

 

However from a business prospective using 2004 as an example, would you rather sponsor a game with 4,000 (D2 AAA) people in attendance or a game with 7,670 (5A) in attendance regardless of the size of the schools?

 

I was a Math major so it is not hard for me to "do the Math". /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

 

 

Yes, the 1A games have had tremendous support - far and away the best attendance numbers "pound for pound" of all the classifications.

 

As for your question, I guess my answer would depend on what I am selling and the demographics/buying power of the two sets of fans.

[Antwan]

Yes, the 1A games have had tremendous support - far and away the best attendance numbers "pound for pound" of all the classifications.

 

As for your question, I guess my answer would depend on what I am selling and the demographics/buying power of the two sets of fans.

 

 

You can manipulate the numbers any way you wish...but the bottom line is the actual attendance. Ratio of students really doesn't matter. How many fans will come out to see the games? Also...if televised...how many people will watch?

[rollredroll]

You can manipulate the numbers any way you wish...but the bottom line is the actual attendance. Ratio of students really doesn't matter. How many fans will come out to see the games? Also...if televised...how many people will watch?

 

 

The purpose of the ratios was to show relative interest in the state title games, since there was a claim that the DII games aren't televised due to "lack of interest".

 

If you don't like the "manipulation" of the numbers, so be it. Let's look at raw numbers. And, bottom line, when games like JCS-FCS (2,543), Alcoa-Goodpasture (2,022), Ridgeway-Fulton (3,600), Hillsboro-Morristown West (3,387), etc. are televised, and MBA-BA (avg. attendance of 3,560 over four games, including the aforementioned -- and overly generous -- downward-adjusted attendance for the 2003 game), MUS-CBHS (4,029), and MBA-Ryan (8,000) are not televised, then the whole "lack of interest (in DII games)" argument goes out the window.

[itzme]

I don't think it matters very much whether a televised high school game has 15,000 people watching or 25,000 people watching. The ratings are miniscule in the grand scheme of television. The commercials shown are not (with only a tiny possible exception) specifically bought for these games, they are part of a whole demographic and TRP package for cable that advertisers buy. Just about any college game (even a repeat) or a Seinfeld rerun gets massively more viewers than these games. They are not a significant money-maker for anyone except TSSAA. Comcast televises the games primarily as a public service, and makes minimal, if any, money off the deal.

 

I'm not sure what the package is that TSSAA negotiates with Comcast, but it certainly would not be enhanced by requiring that Comcast televise games on two completely different weekends. As with most decisions made by TSSAA, it comes down to dollars and cents, and if they got paid more to televise the DII games, they would do so in a heartbeat. They certainly would not make any financial sacrifice, however small, to include the DII games in the deal.

[Bighurt]

The purpose of the ratios was to show relative interest in the state title games, since there was a claim that the DII games aren't televised due to "lack of interest".

 

If you don't like the "manipulation" of the numbers, so be it. Let's look at raw numbers. And, bottom line, when games like JCS-FCS (2,543), Alcoa-Goodpasture (2,022), Ridgeway-Fulton (3,600), Hillsboro-Morristown West (3,387), etc. are televised, and MBA-BA (avg. attendance of 3,560 over four games, including the aforementioned -- and overly generous -- downward-adjusted attendance for the 2003 game), MUS-CBHS (4,029), and MBA-Ryan (8,000) are not televised, then the whole "lack of interest (in DII games)" argument goes out the window.

 

OK. Let's compare apples-to-apples. The JCS-FSC (2,543) and Alcoa-Goodpasture (2,022) games were in 2006. The D2 AAA games that year drew 2,205 - less than the 1A and more than the 2A game. The Ridgeway-Fulton (3,600) game was in 2002. The D2 AAA that year won by MBA drew 3,042. The Hillsboro-Mo West (3,387)game was 2003. That was the year where no attendance was shown for the D2 A and AA games is shown so we really don't know. The MUS-CBHS (4,029) game was 2005. The 1A game that year drew 4,200 and the 2A game that year drew 3,540 again less than the 1A and more than the 2A game. The MBA-Ryan (8,000) was in 1997 (the numbers for the DII Large and Small are the same which makes me question if this is a combined total) which is higher than the attendance shown for the 1A and 2A games that year. 2 years were 1-1. 1 year D1 won. 1 year we don't know. 1 other year (1997) D2 win that I would question.

 

If you look at the last 10 years (throwing out 2003), the D2 largest class game has never (tied in 1997 that I would question) overdrawn the D1 largest class; only outdrawn the 1A game in 1997 (the year 1 would question). They did outdraw 2A (Friday night game versus Saturday night game) in 2002 (MBA outdrew Lipscomb!) 2004, 2005 and 2006.

 

Should I point out that CPA outdrew MBA in both 2000 and 2002? /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

 

I don't see where the "lack of interest" argument goes out the window particularly when you factor in the D2 A and AA games which don't draw flies.

 

Again, regardless of the numbers, I don't believe that D2 is being treated fairly.