Region 7-4A 2021 Outlook

[Kruger77]

23 minutes ago, CHARGERFAN said:

Wow, this Region (except for Haywood) is tops-turvy. Here’s Northside tied with Haywood for the lead in the Region at 2-0.

Then, South Gibson is tied with Obion County for third, and Milan has slipped to 1-3 in the region.

Tell me that somebody out there predicted that!

We are half-way through the regular season, so some of these teams still have time to “right the ship”. 
 

I will tell you that Northside impressed me versus Covington. They were way behind at the half (running clock) but came back after halftime and scored 20 points on our defense. That showed some character. People should not overlook them.

North side is definitely the sleeper of the region

[CHARGERFAN]

As a Covington fan, I can’t help looking at the Standings in this Region and scratching my head. Milan opted to move from 3A to 4A this season, while SGC was put in 4A because they had that many students. I expected to see both of those old rival teams from last year’s 7-3A Region competing for the lead in this Region.

Instead, I look over here and find Haywood and Jackson Northside leading and apparently in control of Region 7-4A. 

The really odd thing is that Covington (still a little old 3A team) has both Northside and Haywood on our schedule this year. We managed to defeat Northside 48-20 early this season. We still have a late-season game at Haywood to play. Everything I read says that game will be a real challenge for Covington. 
 

But, I look at it this way - whether we win or loose, my Chargers will have a great experience playing against a team with Haywood’s talent. That could be the type of competition that our boys need to season us for the playoffs. A loss to Haywood would not be a disgrace. 
 

Still, Covington has a lot of Region 7-3A games to play before we worry about Haywood. I just couldn’t resist the opportunity to comment here.

[stacmot]

Any thoughts or comments about Crockett Co. @ Milan or Obion Central @ South Gibson?

[CHARGERFAN]

3 hours ago, stacmot said:

Any thoughts or comments about Crockett Co. @ Milan or Obion Central @ South Gibson?

Well, I have been shocked by Milan’s losses so far this season. I have no idea what’s going on for them to be 2-4 at this point in the season. The “experts” seem to think they get it back on the tracks this week vs. Crockett County. I was not impressed with CC when Covington played them in the Jamboree, and they seem to be playing well below their usual standard. However, you could sure say the same for Milan. Sonny _Moore has Milan by 20. Massey has them by 25. Personally, I do think Milan gets the win, but not by that much. I’ll say Milan by 14.

As for the South Gibson contest, Obion seems to be playing better this year, but I expect SGC to right the ship and win by 21. Losing to Northside was not a bad loss for SGC, because I saw a glimpse of Northside’s ability when they scored 20 on Covington after halftime. If my guys had not jumped on them 35-0 in the first half, they could have turned things around.

[stacmot]

1 hour ago, CHARGERFAN said:

Well, I have been shocked by Milan’s losses so far this season. I have no idea what’s going on for them to be 2-4 at this point in the season. The “experts” seem to think they get it back on the tracks this week vs. Crockett County. I was not impressed with CC when Covington played them in the Jamboree, and they seem to be playing well below their usual standard. However, you could sure say the same for Milan. Sonny _Moore has Milan by 20. Massey has them by 25. Personally, I do think Milan gets the win, but not by that much. I’ll say Milan by 14.

As for the South Gibson contest, Obion seems to be playing better this year, but I expect SGC to right the ship and win by 21. Losing to Northside was not a bad loss for SGC, because I saw a glimpse of Northside’s ability when they scored 20 on Covington after halftime. If my guys had not jumped on them 35-0 in the first half, they could have turned things around.

Even though I usually do a lot of research for a post, I'll admit that I didn't have the motivation to look at Massey, Sonny Moore and the others for these two games.  However, I still have an interest in how they turn out.  We still have to play South Gibson (Oct. 15) and Obion Central (Oct. 29).  Maybe I was just being lazy hoping that someone else would do the research for me...lol.

I have been shocked by Milan's performance as well, but I do expect the Dawgs to defeat Crockett.  I'm not sure what's going on at Crockett Co. either. I expected the Cavaliers to be better.

Palmer seems to be turning the Obion Central program around, but it's going to take a while.  I have read on the T that SGC seems to have several players injured.  However, I  do believe the Hornets will overcome those injuries to swarm and sting the Rebels.

The North Side victory over SGC definitely surprised me.  I didn't see that coming.  (I bet South Gibson didn't see it coming either!)  I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Haywood this week, so stay focused Tomcats!

Thanks @CHARGERFAN for your thoughts and research.

 

[CHARGERFAN]

So, too much time on my hands, I went to Cal_preps to project these scores too.

Milan 38

CC 31

and

SGC 27

Obion 13

These projected results show much closer games than previous data. We’ll see who is the most accurate.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2021 by CHARGERFAN

[TryNotToSuck]

Haywood moves an inch closer to winning Region 7-4A. What's left of them will be a win in Medina on October 15. If South Gibson wins on the 15th, then there could be a 3-way tie for the #1 seed in Region 7-4A (that's if North Side defeats Milan, South Gibson defeats Crockett, and Haywood defeats Obion Central).

Unfortunately, I don't know the 3-way tiebreaker scenario. That could happen.

If Haywood wins in Medina, then North Side will have to defeat Milan on October 29th to finish with the 2 seed. SGC will go to the 3 seed.

How does Milan get the 2 seed? A win against Obion Central and North Side + South Gibson loss to Haywood and Crockett County.

South Gibson win tonight against Obion Central puts the dagger in Milan finishing with the 2 seed.

Obion Central and Milan game in two weeks will  be an elimination game. Crockett County is all but eliminated.

[TryNotToSuck]

Region 8-4A is bananas to go through right now.

[stacmot]

6 hours ago, TryNotToSuck said:

Haywood moves an inch closer to winning Region 7-4A. What's left of them will be a win in Medina on October 15. If South Gibson wins on the 15th, then there could be a 3-way tie for the #1 seed in Region 7-4A (that's if North Side defeats Milan, South Gibson defeats Crockett, and Haywood defeats Obion Central).

There are a lot of ifs, but as you have pointed out a three way tie could happen. 

According to the TSSAA’s football regulations, there are six tiebreakers that could come into play if more than two teams are tied for one spot and simple head-to-head tiebreakers wouldn’t suffice. Here they are:

• team with the greatest number of victories
• team who has played the greatest number of teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team who has the greatest number of victories over teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team whose opponents have earned the most victories
• team whose opponents have received fewer defeats
• coin flip

I often read posts that say non-region games don't matter, but if you study the list above they do! 

 

Edited October 2, 2021 by stacmot

[stacmot]

Only an insomniac (like me) with too much time on their hands would make a post like this.

There has been talk of a possible 3 way tie between Haywood, North Side, and South Gibson for the 7-4A championship.  For that to happen...South Gibson will have to defeat Haywood, North Side will have to defeat Crockett Co., then Haywood, South Gibson, and North Side would all three have to win their games on the 29th.

According to the TSSAA’s football regulations, there are six tiebreakers that could come into play if more than two teams are tied for one spot and simple head-to-head tiebreakers wouldn’t suffice. Here they are:

• team with the greatest number of victories
• team who has played the greatest number of teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team who as the greatest number of victories over teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team whose opponents have earned the most victories
• team whose opponents have received fewer defeats
• coin flip

If it comes to this, I don't see North Side having much of a chance when it comes to the first tie breaker.  I just don't see Haywood losing all 3 of its remaining games.  If North Side is eliminated in the first tie breaker, the winner of the Haywood-South Gibson game will win the region.  If it goes to the 2nd tie breaker North Side could possibly claim the title.  However, we still have a lot of wins and loses to deal with between now and October 29.  I know it's going to be tough, but it's my hope that HHS will claim the title out right with a win over SGC this Friday night.  I'm not going to even attempt to analyze 3-6 right now.
 

 Haywood (7-0, 3-0 in the region)

Cordova (1-7)        W 55-0
@Crockett Co. (1-6)    W 48-14  
@Lexington (3-4)    W 16-0    
Milan (2-4)        W 40-7    
Melrose (4-4)        W 43-20
North Side (4-3)        W 56-18
@Lake County (2-3)    W 49-0    
@South Gibson (5-2)
Covington (6-1)
Obion Central (3-4)

At this point Haywood has played 2 teams (Melrose and North Side) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  South Gibson and Covington will add to that total.
Lexington, Milan, Lake Co., Obion Central could possibly add to the list.  Melrose, North Side could possibly drop from the list.
 

South Gibson (5-2, 2-1 in the region)

Lexington (3-4)        W 24-21  
Westwood (0-7)    W 1-0
@Milan (2-4)        W 44-41
@Kirby (5-3)        W 21-6
North Side (4-3)        L 27-30
@Henry County (3-5)     L 0-10
Obion Central (3-4)    W 45-20
Haywood (7-0)
Lausanne (5-0)
@Crockett County (1-6)   

At this point South Gibson has played 2 teams (Kirby and North Side) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  Haywood and Lausanne will add to that total.  Lexington, Milan, Henry Co., Obion Central could possibly add to the list.  North Side could possibly drop from that list.
 

North Side (4-3, 2-1 in the region)

Hardin County (7-0)     L 14-33
@Covington (6-1)     L 20-48    
Obion Central (3-4)    W 28-14
Ripley (3-4)        W 28-12
@So. Gibson (5-2)    W 30-27
@Liberty (1-5)        W 48-0    
@Haywood (7-0)    L 18-56
@Crockett Co. (1-6)
South Side (2-5)
Milan (2-4)   

At this point North Side  has played 4 teams (Hardin Co., Covington, South Gibson, Haywood) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  Obion Central, Ripley, South Side, Milan could possibly add to the list.  No team could drop from the list.

 

[CHARGERFAN]

59 minutes ago, stacmot said:

Only an insomniac (like me) with too much time on their hands would make a post like this.

There has been talk of a possible 3 way tie between Haywood, North Side, and South Gibson for the 7-4A championship.  For that to happen...South Gibson will have to defeat Haywood, North Side will have to defeat Crockett Co., then Haywood, South Gibson, and North Side would all three have to win their games on the 29th.

According to the TSSAA’s football regulations, there are six tiebreakers that could come into play if more than two teams are tied for one spot and simple head-to-head tiebreakers wouldn’t suffice. Here they are:

• team with the greatest number of victories
• team who has played the greatest number of teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team who as the greatest number of victories over teams who have won 50 percent or more of their games
• team whose opponents have earned the most victories
• team whose opponents have received fewer defeats
• coin flip

If it comes to this, I don't see North Side having much of a chance when it comes to the first tie breaker.  I just don't see Haywood losing all 3 of its remaining games.  If North Side is eliminated in the first tie breaker, the winner of the Haywood-South Gibson game will win the region.  If it goes to the 2nd tie breaker North Side could possibly claim the title.  However, we still have a lot of wins and loses to deal with between now and October 29.  I know it's going to be tough, but it's my hope that HHS will claim the title out right with a win over SGC this Friday night.  I'm not going to even attempt to analyze 3-6 right now.
 

 Haywood (7-0, 3-0 in the region)

Cordova (1-7)        W 55-0
@Crockett Co. (1-6)    W 48-14  
@Lexington (3-4)    W 16-0    
Milan (2-4)        W 40-7    
Melrose (4-4)        W 43-20
North Side (4-3)        W 56-18
@Lake County (2-3)    W 49-0    
@South Gibson (5-2)
Covington (6-1)
Obion Central (3-4)

At this point Haywood has played 2 teams (Melrose and North Side) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  South Gibson and Covington will add to that total.
Lexington, Milan, Lake Co., Obion Central could possibly add to the list.  Melrose, North Side could possibly drop from the list.
 

South Gibson (5-2, 2-1 in the region)

Lexington (3-4)        W 24-21  
Westwood (0-7)    W 1-0
@Milan (2-4)        W 44-41
@Kirby (5-3)        W 21-6
North Side (4-3)        L 27-30
@Henry County (3-5)     L 0-10
Obion Central (3-4)    W 45-20
Haywood (7-0)
Lausanne (5-0)
@Crockett County (1-6)   

At this point South Gibson has played 2 teams (Kirby and North Side) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  Haywood and Lausanne will add to that total.  Lexington, Milan, Henry Co., Obion Central could possibly add to the list.  North Side could possibly drop from that list.
 

North Side (4-3, 2-1 in the region)

Hardin County (7-0)     L 14-33
@Covington (6-1)     L 20-48    
Obion Central (3-4)    W 28-14
Ripley (3-4)        W 28-12
@So. Gibson (5-2)    W 30-27
@Liberty (1-5)        W 48-0    
@Haywood (7-0)    L 18-56
@Crockett Co. (1-6)
South Side (2-5)
Milan (2-4)   

At this point North Side  has played 4 teams (Hardin Co., Covington, South Gibson, Haywood) who have won 50 percent or more of their games.  Obion Central, Ripley, South Side, Milan could possibly add to the list.  No team could drop from the list.

 

Stacmot, all I can say is WOW!  We retired guys are the only ones with enough time to figure out stuff like this.

[stacmot]

3 minutes ago, CHARGERFAN said:

Stacmot, all I can say is WOW!  We retired guys are the only ones with enough time to figure out stuff like this.

I definitely have too much time on my hands. Insomnia doesn't help.  I've already started to put together stats for the Covington-Haywood game on the 22nd.