What happens if privates sweep 1A, 2A and 3A titles this year?

[lazarus]

back to the original question on the thread,

what if privates win the three smallest football classifications?

 

here are some interesting numbers:

 

privates won 62.7% of their games with publics this year.

if we make the assumption that they should win 62.7% of their playoff games,

based on the distribution of privates in the brackets:

there is a 63.9% chance that a private will win single A

there is a 48.5% chance of a private winning double A

in triple A, there would only be a 29.1% chance of a private winner.

 

the odds of winning all three? only 9.0%

 

 

of course, the odds are not supposed to be "even" in every game,

the brackets are seeded.

(altho 4's historically win 20% of their games with 1's in the first round)

i didnt factor that in, because i am lazy, and the sample size is enough to minimize the effect on the final numbers.

 

there are different ways to figure the probability of having 3 private champions;

 

looking at it, instead, based on having a single private in each class that has a 90% probability of winning in each playoff game, each of those teams would only have a 59.0% probability of actually winning their class.

the odds of all 3 of them winning would drop to 20.6%

 

if you increased that winning probablility to 95%, the odds of winning each division improve to 77.4%, and winning all 3 is still less than 50/50, at 46.3%

 

of course, in the 90% & 95% scenarios the alternative winner could conceivably still be a private school, so the odds of 3 privates winning would be a little better than those listed.

 

anyone else have a different approach?

Edited October 29, 2006 by lazarus

[rollredroll]

Many (maybe most) of the financial aid schools are not athletic powerhouses.

i havent looked recently, but the d-1 privates used to win more than they lost against the d-2 privates (as a whole). i doubt that has changed.

 

I don't have numbers handy, but on the surface, I would think that the exact opposite would be the case. Three of the top 5 Tennessee programs of all time in terms of football wins are DII privates (MBA 2nd, Baylor 3rd, McCallie 5th). BA is, I believe, the all-time leader in Tennessee in terms of winning percentage as far as programs with any significant history (i.e., more than 300 games played). If MBA, Baylor, McCallie, and BA are not considered athletic powerhouses, I'd love to see the list of the four current DI privates who would be considered to be athletic powerhouses vis-a-vis the aforementioned four.

 

I realize that these are a cherry-picked four schools, but there are plenty of other current DII schools who have relatively long histories, and good ones at that - CBHS, BGA, MUS, etc. I would think there are just as many powerhouses as there are non-powerhouses in DII.

 

As far as I remember, Goodpasture and David Lipscomb never beat Brentwood Academy when those teams were in the same football district in the three class days. I think those losses alone would be far too much of a stagger for the current DI privates to overcome. With that said, outside of the BA-Goodpasture and BA-DLHS games, there were not many football games between current DII and DI programs. Outside of a few games with Old Hickory (now USJ), MBA never played any of the current DI ABCs. The only DI private I recall McCallie playing with any form of regularity was Notre Dame (and McCallie leads that series 25-7-2). BGA probably has a decent string of historical games with some of the Nashville DI privates (DCA, FRA, DLHS, Goodpasture etc.) - and I would consider BGA to be, histrocially, a better program than any of those four - but long story short, I'd say the current DI privates lost with more regularity, and I would think the absence of those schools on DI schedules (and replacement with smaller DI rural schools), as VG opined, has increased winning percentages for current DI privates.

Edited October 30, 2006 by rollredroll

[lazarus]

Bishop Byrne (Memphis)

David Brainerd (Chattanooga)

Davidson Academy (Nashville)

FACS (Cordova)

Kings Academy (Seymour)

Lighthouse Christian (Millington)

Memphis Catholic (Memphis)

Rosemark (Millington)

Rossville

SBEC (Southaven)

St. Andrews (Sewanee)

St. George's (Collierville)

 

 

well, i was thinking more of this group... and pre-split.

but you are probably right.

[BDURHAM]

If Alcoa wins, then will everyone be satisfied

if privates win 1A & 3A.

 

I'm for this approach, with some obvious

tweaking to promote a total split:

 

Division III

Division III institutions have to sponsor at least five sports for men and five for women, with two team sports for each gender, and each playing season represented by each gender. There are minimum contest and participant minimums for each sport. Division III athletics features student-athletes who receive no financial aid related to their athletic ability and athletic departments are staffed and funded like any other department in the university. Division III athletics departments place special importance on the impact of athletics on the participants rather than on the spectators. The student-athlete's experience is of paramount concern. Division III athletics encourages participation by maximizing the number and variety of athletics opportunities available to students, placing primary emphasis on regional in-season and conference competition.

Edited October 30, 2006 by StanTrott

[Buzzman]

If Alcoa wins, then will everyone be satisfied

if privates win 1A & 3A.

 

I'm for this approach, with some obvious

tweaking to promote a total split:

 

Division III

Division III institutions have to sponsor at least five sports for men and five for women, with two team sports for each gender, and each playing season represented by each gender. There are minimum contest and participant minimums for each sport. Division III athletics features student-athletes who receive no financial aid related to their athletic ability and athletic departments are staffed and funded like any other department in the university. Division III athletics departments place special importance on the impact of athletics on the participants rather than on the spectators. The student-athlete's experience is of paramount concern. Division III athletics encourages participation by maximizing the number and variety of athletics opportunities available to students, placing primary emphasis on regional in-season and conference competition.

 

Huh??????

[my2cents]

If they win all three, then the multiplier rule failed miserably. Even if they won 2 out of the three, I would say the same.

[VolunteerGeneral]

If they win all three, then the multiplier rule failed miserably. Even if they won 2 out of the three, I would say the same.

 

And if they don`t win any should people just shut up and play?

[Bighurt]

And if they don`t win any should people just shut up and play?

You mean like last year?

[bbsesq]

You mean like last year?

 

If one private school wins one state championship in football, the anticompetition crowd is going to call the multiplier a failure.

[Antwan]

If one private school wins one state championship in football, the anticompetition crowd is going to call the multiplier a failure.

 

Just wondering...is your team moving up to 3a...4a...or 5a the next classification period? You know...since you are for competition...and all.

[lazarus]

"Just wondering...is your team moving up to 3a...4a...or 5a the next classification period? You know...since you are for competition...and all."

 

i heard they were petitioning for admission to the 11-12 pop warner league,

because those guys are in such bad need of competition.

[big red big blue]

Does anyone wonder if the move to 5 classes had anything to do with the apparent recent domination of private schools?

 

Yes....I definitely think so. When we went to 5 classes, it made it much easier for good teams--both public and private--to dominate the class for long periods of time. BA moved up to 5A in '95 and it was a totally different landscape than what had been there before in 3A (the highest class). What they did from '95-'96 would not, imo, have been possible in the old 3A system; there was just too much competition in that class for any team to put together sustained regular and post-season winning streaks. That's why so few teams did it back then. Had BA moved up to 3A in the '80s, I think everything would be different today. Either way, private schools certainly didn't dominate the old 3A. I think only Baylor, FRHS, and CBHS managed titles playing in 3A, and I think they all were in the '70s.

 

Look at 4A now. Maryville, Hillsboro, and Melrose are seemingly 3 of the final 4 every season. In 5A, Ravenwood wins a title in its 3rd year of varsity football. It is just very watered down at the top. If we were still in 3 classes, many of those larger 4A teams would be playing the 5A teams along the way in the play-offs.

Edited October 30, 2006 by big red big blue