A/AA State Predictions

[Coniglio]

My guess is for the race that Clabo will push the pace early. He likes doing that and he probably won't wait on either Patterson or Johnson to take control.

[stealthccrunner3200]

DL has some rabits that will go out with the leader im willing to bet. Perkins went out blistering at region idk if someone would try that again. what do u think clabo's first mile is gonna be?

[gatlinzpitt4]

Im gonna go with Clabo raping the competition just as the elizabethtown kid did last year. He's a great front runner and with a 9:50 3200m...it goes to Clabo, hands down.

[stealthccrunner3200]

Im gonna go with Clabo raping the competition just as the elizabethtown kid did last year. He's a great front runner and with a 9:50 3200m...it goes to Clabo, hands down.

 

u may be right but the 3200 has NOTHING to do with the 5k.

 

damon varble- great 3200 runner (made state last year 9:52 or something) but just a good cc runner nothing special

patterson- worst 3200 runner ive ever seen

Edited October 30, 2006 by stealthccrunner3200

[gphstrack]

u may be right but the 3200 has NOTHING to do with the 5k.

 

damon varble- great 3200 runner (made state last year 9:52 or something) but just a good cc runner nothing special

patterson- worst 3200 runner ive ever seen

 

didn't varble completely fall apart on the 3200 at state?

[thecrippler2222]

u may be right but the 3200 has NOTHING to do with the 5k.

 

damon varble- great 3200 runner (made state last year 9:52 or something) but just a good cc runner nothing special

patterson- worst 3200 runner ive ever seen

i agree, there are 3 guys in that race that ran in the 9:50s last year so a 950 definately doesnt make clabo the favorite, plus patterson, coniglio, madden, mckinley, mahaney, and many other guys that will be up at the top never got close to breaking ten but are still threats to win

[saywhat?]

There is no doubt that Clabo is a good runner. Yet to assume that he would "rape the competition as the Elizabthton kid did last year" is to err. A 9:50 3200m is respectable, but to extrapolate that time to a cross-country race is silly; every race is its own creature, and you just have to figure out how to kill the beast.

 

Perkins is a good runner, but I'll bet that Johnson has him beat on Saturday. Musick and Bell are pretty solid as well.

 

But then again so are Patterson and Cowan.

 

Coniglio seems like he should be able to put together a solid race.

 

If you want to look purely at numbers and run some calculations to make your predictions, fine. But there are numerous lurking variables that must be taken into account; everything that these runners have done since the end of track to now has some effect, even if it is infinitesimally small. And of course there is the possibility that some overriding factor will present itself at some point during the race on Saturday.

 

If Lipscomb is going to RTFOOI Saturday and not wonder WTFS their SFNG-pole, they have a decent shot at winning.

 

That said, the fortitude displayed by a team or an individual is only impregnable to the extent that others have not yet managed to breach it. Fortitude is a defensive procedure, and a single lapse can spell disaster. No runner will run three miles without a single lapse, but some will obviously have more than others.

 

I'll root to the end for the guys I know have maximized the ratio of mental to physical, the guys I know can come out of the woordwork to do something spectacular, the guys who know that Saturday is their day, the guys who know that it's going to take every Joule of energy they can muster, the guys who are willing to give that last Joule, the guys who have thrived in the face of Rebel Assault, the guys who run not just for themselves but for those who have come before and those who will come after.

[gatlinzpitt4]

u may be right but the 3200 has NOTHING to do with the 5k.

 

damon varble- great 3200 runner (made state last year 9:52 or something) but just a good cc runner nothing special

patterson- worst 3200 runner ive ever seen

 

very true...but he ran like 10:47 at state. the only ones close were pair rodewald and jaynes. hes god but you have to be able to step up when it counts. clabo stays focused every race. he won regin by over 30 sec on a tough course. im stickin with him.

[Coniglio]

That's why I'm also picking him as the winner in what I think will be a pretty close race. I think I can also claim the worst 3200 (for guys that tried to qualify - or those that did - for state) in the A/AA "favorites" field.

 

I bet I can claim the worst mile too.

Edited October 30, 2006 by Coniglio

[gphstrack]

don't be hard on yourself, conig. i'd love to see you finish 2nd.

 

not so sure i agree with you about clabo pushing the pace. at sectionals in the 3200 (I think that's what you're referring to?), he got upset because you, jaynes, and benavides went out way too slow. plus, he knew what jaynes was capable of on the last 400...which we saw in action when he chased him down to beat him by a second.

 

and let's not forget how the same thing happened at the state meet. clabo lost by .25 seconds...he won't let that happen again.

 

also, david is not one to take the lead early. david smith from university school pushed the first mile at 5:09 on thursday, which is a little fast in my opinion on a course like daniel boone.

 

good luck, see you on saturday. beat all those middle tennessee boys for me.

[Coniglio]

Yeah I was referring to sectionals. It's not my fault I was at 1:15 to open up and in last place by 5 seconds.

 

Oh good then. I might have a pace buddy for the race.

[thecrippler2222]

That's why I'm also picking him as the winner in what I think will be a pretty close race. I think I can also claim the worst 3200 (for guys that tried to qualify - or those that did - for state) in the A/AA "favorites" field.

 

I bet I can claim the worst mile too.

you obviously never saw kp run a 3200 (no offense kp ur my boy and you can rape me in anything shorter than a mile)

also perkins pr is slower than yours, and musick's, and cowan's, and mckinley's. and i think mahaney's is about the same as yours, maybe a couple seconds faster.

i think johnson, clabo, and varble are the only guys with 32 times significantly better than yours and i wouldnt consider varble part of that favorites field

like we said earlier, track times mean absolutely nothing, for example the only reason kp has such slower times in the 32 and 16 is because during track season he trains for the 8 and 4 while during cross he trains for the 5k. if he wanted to train for the 32 i'm sure he would be a sub10 runner also but thats not what his team needs because as we all know fra is a hot bed for distance runners, not so much for 400 and shorter runners so they need him to run that race