Region 7-4A 2021 Outlook

[stacmot]

Over the last couple of months, there was a lot of discussion concerning preseason polls and predictions.  So, I thought I would take a look at how Massey and Moore fared in week one's head to head competition.

Massey's preseason predictions: (HFA is already calculated.)

South Gibson by 6 over Lexington
Milan by 7 over Peabody
Dyer Co. by 8 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 8 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 3 over North Side

Sonny Moore's preseason power ratings:

South Gibson by 3 over Lexington
Peabody by 3 over Milan
Dyer co. by 13 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 5 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 17 over North Side

Sonny Moore indicates that in order to estimate the score difference of a game, compare the two teams PR and add 2.00 points to the home team for the average HFA.  I did not do that.

Week 1 Results:

South Gibson defeated Lexington by 3 (24-21)
Peabody defeated Milan by 10 (35-25)
Dyer Co. defeated Crockett Co. by 26 (39-13)
Obion Central defeated Gibson Co. by 14 (34-20)
Hardin Co. defeated North Side by 19 (33-14)

As far as wins are concerned, Moore was 100% and Massey was 80%.  Moore was closer with the point spreads as well.  

 

[Tigersandcats]

1 hour ago, stacmot said:

Over the last couple of months, there was a lot of discussion concerning preseason polls and predictions.  So, I thought I would take a look at how Massey and Moore fared in week one's head to head competition.

Massey's preseason predictions: (HFA is already calculated.)

South Gibson by 6 over Lexington
Milan by 7 over Peabody
Dyer Co. by 8 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 8 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 3 over North Side

Sonny Moore's preseason power ratings:

South Gibson by 3 over Lexington
Peabody by 3 over Milan
Dyer co. by 13 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 5 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 17 over North Side

Sonny Moore indicates that in order to estimate the score difference of a game, compare the two teams PR and add 2.00 points to the home team for the average HFA.  I did not do that.

Week 1 Results:

South Gibson defeated Lexington by 3 (24-21)
Peabody defeated Milan by 10 (35-25)
Dyer Co. defeated Crockett Co. by 26 (39-13)
Obion Central defeated Gibson Co. by 14 (34-20)
Hardin Co. defeated North Side by 19 (33-14)

As far as wins are concerned, Moore was 100% and Massey was 80%.  Moore was closer with the point spreads as well.  

 

Interesting stuff.

[reddyrebel6]

To be clear, I feel like in real game conditions, we would have probably defeated HC handily when you consider the kicking and return games. Our kicker puts 80 percent in the end zone. When you kick to Haywood, they get excellent field condition. Haywood was starting to click in the passing game towards the end. Historically, this staff has been pretty good in its third year. After two years at Germantown, Coach Smith went 11-1 and 12-1 back to back. It's been a good offseason and as someone who has seen this first hand, this appears to be the best squad HC has had in his time here. Lewis on offense is going to be dynamic, but it will weaken the defense at times as he rests. A key starter is returning at linebacker from surgery this week. I look for a lot of high scoring games from the Tomcats and for them to be there at the end.

[CHARGERFAN]

1 hour ago, stacmot said:

Over the last couple of months, there was a lot of discussion concerning preseason polls and predictions.  So, I thought I would take a look at how Massey and Moore fared in week one's head to head competition.

Massey's preseason predictions: (HFA is already calculated.)

South Gibson by 6 over Lexington
Milan by 7 over Peabody
Dyer Co. by 8 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 8 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 3 over North Side

Sonny Moore's preseason power ratings:

South Gibson by 3 over Lexington
Peabody by 3 over Milan
Dyer co. by 13 over Crockett Co.
Obion Central by 5 over Gibson Co.
Hardin Co. by 17 over North Side

Sonny Moore indicates that in order to estimate the score difference of a game, compare the two teams PR and add 2.00 points to the home team for the average HFA.  I did not do that.

Week 1 Results:

South Gibson defeated Lexington by 3 (24-21)
Peabody defeated Milan by 10 (35-25)
Dyer Co. defeated Crockett Co. by 26 (39-13)
Obion Central defeated Gibson Co. by 14 (34-20)
Hardin Co. defeated North Side by 19 (33-14)

As far as wins are concerned, Moore was 100% and Massey was 80%.  Moore was closer with the point spreads as well.  

 

Stacmot, you always find interesting stuff to present. So, we are buying Sonny-Moore and selling Massey, eh (as they say in Canada)?

I’m pretty happy with where Moore puts Covington in his Power Rankings,  but as you and I have said before, it’s what happens on the field that counts. Of course, I’m always happy to see that somebody else rates “my team”:highly. Now we just have to back it up for real.

Thanks for what you do. I was sorry to read in another thread that you won’t be doing games in person again this year. Let’s hope that this COVID stuff goes away sooner rather than later. 
 

I will attend every game they let me in. I had COVID last summer, then have had two vaccinations since. My doctor recently tested my antibodies and I scored the max - 250. I’m going full speed ahead at this point.

 

[TryNotToSuck]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:46 PM, TryNotToSuck said:

Well guys, I think it's time to go for predictions on how this region will work out.

1: Haywood

2: Milan

3: North Side

4: South Gibson

5: Crockett County

6: Obion Central (I won't be shocked if they get to 5th).

I was wrong, I’m flipping South Gibson and North Side. Sorry, Millions

[stacmot]

Thanks, I always enjoy reading your posts. They are always interesting and informative.

It does sound like we (I) might be selling Massey short...lol.  But when it comes down to it, Moore has more experience and knowledge of Tennessee High School football.  Massey's ratings and predictions should get better as the season progresses, and Moore's ratings will get better as well.  It will be somewhat interesting to see what Moore and Massey have to say this week.  

Before a few Tomcat fans, as well as a few others, start flaming me, it does bear repeating, it is what happens on the field that counts.  I know that! I believe that!  I've never said otherwise!  Pollsters can't foresee player adjustments, injuries, player attitude, weather, etc...  There's just too many factors that come into play.  (Please don't be offended Chargerfan. Those statements were not directed towards you.)

No one was more excited than I was about the 2021 season.  I was really excited that things seemed to be returning to normal, but as the Delta variant has surged, I feel like I need to play it safe.

I'm fully vaccinated, so if things get better in the next few weeks, I may venture out.  I'd love to at least see Haywood's home games against Milan, Lake Co., and Covington.

Congratulations on Covington's win against Munford.  As you know, I support the Chargers too.  Well...not when y'all are playing Haywood!  I hope y'all make it to Chattanooga. If things do get better, my wife and I owe you a dinner at Bozo's or another restaurant of your choice.  I'd love to talk some more Haywood and Covington football with you.

 

 

[stacmot]

Of course this is simply a prediction and the source is the Jackson Sun... two things you have to consider.  But WOW, I see that the Sun has predicted Obion to be a 31-13 favorite over North Side. 

Obion (2-0) has one on-the-field victory against Gibson Co. while North Side (0-2) has struggled against two very talented and ranked teams (Hardin Co. and Covington). 

I'm going to go with North Side in this game.  Anyone else have any thoughts?

[Tigersandcats]

5 minutes ago, stacmot said:

Of course this is simply a prediction and the source is the Jackson Sun... two things you have to consider.  But WOW, I see that the Sun has predicted Obion to be a 31-13 favorite over North Side. 

Obion (2-0) has one on-the-field victory against Gibson Co. while North Side (0-2) has struggled against two very talented and ranked teams (Hardin Co. and Covington). 

I'm going to go with North Side in this game.  Anyone else have any thoughts?

I’m with you on this game. Northside is not a bad team, just had two quality opponents the first two weeks. I think NS wins this one as well. 

[stacmot]

16 minutes ago, Tigersandcats said:

I’m with you on this game. Northside is not a bad team, just had two quality opponents the first two weeks. I think NS wins this one as well. 

I know Obion has a new coach who is trying to instill a winning attitude in the Rebels, and they are expected to be better.  However, I just don't see this one playing out in their favor.  In the long run, I do hope Coach Palmer will turn Obion into a more respectable and competitive team.

The Sun predicts Hardin Co. to be a 43-7 winner over South Side.  I think that's a much more reasonable prediction.

[Tigersandcats]

20 minutes ago, stacmot said:

I know Obion has a new coach who is trying to instill a winning attitude in the Rebels, and they are expected to be better.  However, I just don't see this one playing out in their favor.  In the long run, I do hope Coach Palmer will turn Obion into a more respectable and competitive team.

The Sun predicts Hardin Co. to be a 43-7 winner over South Side.  I think that's a much more reasonable prediction.

Big point spread there. Don’t know if they’ll be 36 pts better than SS. Just get the win and that’s all that matter. Good luck against Crockett. What’s the suns score prediction on y’all’s game?

[stacmot]

While I'm at it, why not look at the Sun's prediction for the other two 7-4A games.

Milan 24, South Gibson 14
Haywood 38, Crockett Co. 7

Of course we have two games to go before the Milan-Haywood game in week 5.  Just thinking ahead, IF Milan defeats both South Gibson this week and Haywood in week 5, the Dawgs will all but have the Region 7 championship plaque in their trophy case.  Hopefully, all the rest of us in 7-4A won't let that happen.  Let's put some of that juju BPM likes to talk about on those Dawgs.  Advice to self, let's take it one game at a time and see how it plays out!
 

[stacmot]

8 minutes ago, Tigersandcats said:

Big point spread there. Don’t know if they’ll be 36 pts better than SS. Just get the win and that’s all that matter. Good luck against Crockett. What’s the suns score prediction on y’all’s game?

Thanks, and good luck to the Tigers.  You're right!  The win is what is important.