Sullivan South v. Maryville

[coachspanky]

Yes I did. I like to do that for the big games (when I have some free time on my hands).

 

The thing about the model I've built is that it relies solely on numbers. There's no way to take into account that a team is playing against the mighty mighty Red Rebels. As such, it always gives the opponents a few points and underestimates the Rebels. When I make my predictions I try to remember that.

 

Last week I guessed 35 - 21. I didn't think our twos would score on them...

 

hey you were almost on the money with their score-what did you pick for friday night? i hope or 2's, 3's et 4's get lots of reps-holler

[matback]

who out there has actually seen both of theese teams play this year and what is your objective opinion?

[VHSFALCONS]

What a small world. Andy's cousin Tinker is my brother in law. His dad's name is Bubby Clark. I know Ashley Costner too. lol. Ill probably come to the Maryville game this weekend. I played football for Cosby. I graduated in 07. Me and My bro are now playing at Emory and Henry.

 

Do me a favor and tell Ed Smith hello for me! He'll know who it is. Thanks and good luck at Emory and Henry.

[Cap1]

Good luck with the root canal bro! Here's what you were looking for:

 

Offense:

Maryville scores on average 34.85 points per game.

South averages 42 points per game.

 

Advantage South

 

Defense:

Maryville gives up an average of 12.69 points per game.

South gives up 14 points per game.

 

Advantage Maryville

 

Strength of Schedule:

Maryville's opponents have a combined record of 79-66. The Red Rebels played 6 games against teams with losing records. Coach T has the MHS strength of schedule at 17. The average strength of their opponents' schedules is 19.

South's opponents have a combined record of 72-74. They played 6 teams with losing records and one team that was 500. Coach T has the South strength of schedule at 30. The average strength of their opponents' schedules is 32.

 

This is the part that surprised me. I expected the gap between Maryville's schedule to be much greater than it is using these numbers.

 

One Interesting Note:

A natural reference point in pontificating about this game is the MHS/THS game from 2004. So, I thought that I'd pull up some numbers that I ran prior to that game:

 

THS came in scoring 47 ppg and allowing only 8 on defense. So, they were scoring more than South is this year and giving up less. Further, they did so against teams with essentially the same combined records as the opponents of South this year.

 

In that same season, MHS was also scoring about 7 more points per game and allowing about 4 fewer. They did so against teams with about the same combined records as the teams they played this year.

 

Here's the picture I want to paint: It was 2004 and a team ran through everybody in NET. Quietly, Maryville was going about its business of winning gold balls. There was a ton of pomp and circumstance heading into the inevitable clash. The numbers were essentially the same. The scenario is freakishly similar. The years have changed and so has one of the teams. The outcome of that game was a grisly 49-0 donkeystomping...and believe me when I say that it wasn't that close.

 

So why should this game be any different? The numbers suggest that it could be.

 

I know the score tells a different story in 04' but I was there, and I can genuinely say that the Red Rebs weren't that impressive talent wise. True you had a superb QB (best arm and decision making I've witnessed in HS football) and a BIG front line, but nothing more than what we had already seen in the regular season at any of the other skilled positions. Your reputation and the hype of the Red Rebs team beat the Vikings more than the level of talent. But the main factor was that our Coaching staff was on a different planet (and still are) when it come to preparing the team for an opponent. Maryville had our number and we were so use to (as you put it) "donkeystomping" /laugh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":lol:" border="0" alt="laugh.gif" /> EVERYBODY else we had no other plan. Hopefully Coach Carter and South learned from our mistake and will be prepared. I haven't seen the Red Rebels play this year but if the talent level is anything close to 04' you guys will have your hands full with South...IF South's coaches are prepared.

[WaCoJaCo]

Easy there, young lady.

You're posts are frequently 2 part. Noticed your mom writes the football related parts and you sneak and add the insults. Like I said, you girls are a hoot.

 

Does your mom know you're using a new screen name?

 

 

A good example of a Tennessee High fan thats gone over the deep end.

 

Why are you trolling the South - Maryville thread ? Still mad at the South people ? Or is it just a Kingsport thing with you.

Score for 2007

Eastman - 3

 

Tn. High - 0 /hungry.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":hungry:" border="0" alt="hungry.gif" />

[BristolBoy]

who out there has actually seen both of theese teams play this year and what is your objective opinion?

 

I have seen both teams play this year. I live in Knoxville and am from Bristol. I played against Curt Phillips and also played on the Tenn High team that played Maryville in 04. The fact is this. Maryville will by far have the best team on the field and South will no doubt have the best player on the field. Though this Maryville team is very talented and does have D-1 players, I dont think they are as good as that 04 team with Thompson and Bynum and Childs and all them and they will probably tell you that. This years South team is more equipped to have even a chance of pulling this upset simply because of Phillips. There have been players that can't live up to the hype but Phillips is the real deal and is worthy as the the number 7 ranked QB in the nation as Unapproved Website has him. The Maryville coaching staff is the best in the state and Im sure they have a gameplan to stop Curt. The only way South has a chance in this one is if they can open the passing game up be cause I think Maryville will focus on Phillps running the ball. South does have a capable group of receivers. Another thing is keep it close early. When we played them in 04 we got down early and it just snowballed and we were done after the 1st quarter. And as always is the key in pulling an upset, South will have to get some turnovers off of Maryville and that is not easy to do. Kind of like Brainerd did to Maryville last year. Maryville is ranked 7th in the nation by Sports Illustrated coming into this game. From what I hear the Vols are trying to pull Philliops from Wisconsin and get him to Knoxville, dont know how much truth there is to that but I know Cutcliffe has talked to him on occasion. Good Luck to both teams. This is going to be a great weekend for me Im going to this game Friday night and going to LSU-Tennessee on Saturday. I will be pulling for South because I cant remember the last time a team from the Mountain Lakes made the State Championship. But my prediction is

 

 

Maryville 35

South 17

[JDRebel]

I'd be interested in seeing your stats, Papa. Since my "real" job sort of involves stats here at the workplace, I'd like to see the research you been doing and your prognostications. Thought I'd throw in a 2 dollar word. 83Rebel, and JDRebel, I'd also like to see what you guys are thinking today about the game. I see you are keeping a low profile today.

 

Personally, I'd like to see the posts take a more positive turn toward discussing some football myself. I'm not interested in people's heritage right now. Let's talk football!

 

 

Hey hog, I am just sitting here and reading what everyone else writes down, some I find intriguing to read and others I pass by. I like a lot of others will be there friday "With the good Lord willing, and the creek don't rise"

 

I am thinking it will be a good match up, I maybe wrong?? maybe right?? Will see friday night starting around 7pm.

 

Maryville as we all know has been a beast in TN!! Hats off to them, gots to be great coaching, players, dedication, work ethic, etc. etc.! South has been dominate over the past 3 years in the MLC, since Coach C, has took over the South program it has turned around, I know about all the coaching staff, and to make this team what it is at South right now and continuing, it takes the same as I mentioned for Maryville.

 

As I stated before in an earlier post, "to be the best, you have to beat the best" As we all know again, Maryville is the best 4A program in the state! South wants it! I am positive the Maryville and their staff is picking apart game films and making necessary adjustments to stop South, I know that South is also picking apart game films and making adjustments to stop Maryville! What adjustments??? I don't know, either way.

 

Will South win??? will see around 9:30 or so Friday night, I can bet you one thing though South's coming to play some football!! There is no doubt in my mind that Maryville is coming to play some football too!!

 

Good Luck to both sides, and as for the winner of this slobberknocker, may you go on and win the state championship!!!

[VolmanScott]

Good luck with the root canal bro! Here's what you were looking for:

 

Offense:

Maryville scores on average 34.85 points per game.

South averages 42 points per game.

 

Advantage South

 

Defense:

Maryville gives up an average of 12.69 points per game.

South gives up 14 points per game.

 

Advantage Maryville

 

Strength of Schedule:

Maryville's opponents have a combined record of 79-66. The Red Rebels played 6 games against teams with losing records. Coach T has the MHS strength of schedule at 17. The average strength of their opponents' schedules is 19.

South's opponents have a combined record of 72-74. They played 6 teams with losing records and one team that was 500. Coach T has the South strength of schedule at 30. The average strength of their opponents' schedules is 32.

 

This is the part that surprised me. I expected the gap between Maryville's schedule to be much greater than it is using these numbers.

 

One Interesting Note:

A natural reference point in pontificating about this game is the MHS/THS game from 2004. So, I thought that I'd pull up some numbers that I ran prior to that game:

 

THS came in scoring 47 ppg and allowing only 8 on defense. So, they were scoring more than South is this year and giving up less. Further, they did so against teams with essentially the same combined records as the opponents of South this year.

 

In that same season, MHS was also scoring about 7 more points per game and allowing about 4 fewer. They did so against teams with about the same combined records as the teams they played this year.

 

Here's the picture I want to paint: It was 2004 and a team ran through everybody in NET. Quietly, Maryville was going about its business of winning gold balls. There was a ton of pomp and circumstance heading into the inevitable clash. The numbers were essentially the same. The scenario is freakishly similar. The years have changed and so has one of the teams. The outcome of that game was a grisly 49-0 donkeystomping...and believe me when I say that it wasn't that close.

 

So why should this game be any different? The numbers suggest that it could be.

 

 

Good post. But, I would venture to guess that each semi final game that Maryville has played vs. a region 1 or 2 team in the last 8 years, the stats are very similar to what you just quoted. Am i correct in this assumtion? I may be wrong, but I think we'll score on Maryville. I'm just not sure if we can stop Maryville very many times. I'm not going to predict a score, but I am taking the over. /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

[STARSNBARS]

Fellers just saw tha Sullyvun South TV show. Vurry nice producshun.

 

Sullyvun South looks two run almost always frum tha shot-gun. Three/four wides and a singull back. Occashunull TE set. Lot of midline opshun, QB sweeps, etc. Looks like thair line plays ankull two ankull, hardlee no splits. #15 runs hard and tha receevers are good, butt Phillips iz tha show.

 

On deefence, thay run mostly 4 man front but will run odd frunt at times. #52 and #59 look two bee vurry active.

[WaCoJaCo]

I know the score tells a different story in 04' but I was there, and I can genuinely say that the Red Rebs weren't that impressive talent wise. True you had a superb QB (best arm and decision making I've witnessed in HS football) and a BIG front line, but nothing more than what we had already seen in the regular season at any of the other skilled positions. Your reputation and the hype of the Red Rebs team beat the Vikings more than the level of talent. But the main factor was that our Coaching staff was on a different planet (and still are) when it come to preparing the team for an opponent. Maryville had our number and we were so use to (as you put it) "donkeystomping" /laugh.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":lol:" border="0" alt="laugh.gif" /> EVERYBODY else we had no other plan. Hopefully Coach Carter and South learned from our mistake and will be prepared. I haven't seen the Red Rebels play this year but if the talent level is anything close to 04' you guys will have your hands full with South...IF South's coaches are prepared.

 

 

You have got to be kidding me! /roflol.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":roflol:" border="0" alt="roflol.gif" />

 

I was there also. The score could of been 100- 0 at the end of the 3rd qtr. if Maryville had wanted it to be. Tennessee High was way overrated in 2004 and that was about the worst perpared team I have seen take the field for a playoff game. The coaching staff must not of even scouted Maryville or even looked at a game film. To say Maryville was not impressive talent wise is insane. Sure thay have great coaching but you don't win like they do without impressive talent. And I mean EVERY YEAR! You people in Bristol need to accept your "Donkeystomping" and move on. South may not win this game but they will not get embaressed like you guys did.

[Red Rebels]

Panther

I would argue there IS a debate there when you tallk "Knoxville aea vs. NET". You say Knoxville area is stronger but I am reading that you lump Maryville and Oak Ridge (why not Sevier County?) into that argument to help your cause. I would argue that Maryville and Oak Ridge are not "Knoxville area" just as Murfreesboro is not lumped with Nashville area, they are there own area and I would say neither wants to be lumped in to the Knoxville umbrella. When you strip away Maryville and Oak Ridge from your argument then there is little weight to the Knoxville is better discussion. Looking back at the schedule to 1996 (that is as far as I can find), DB has an 18-2 record vs the Knoxville area teams. Per the TSSAA website going back to 1993 (5 classifications) DB is 6-2 in the playoffs (2-2 vs Farragut, 2-0 vs Karns, 2-0 vs Bearden). Then if you include the Blount County and Oak Ridge teams that DB has played, DB has winning records vs Oak Ridge (11-7, 5-3 playoffs), William Blount (4-3, 1-2 playoffs), and Heritage (5-0, 1-0 playoffs). By my count DB is 18-2 vs Knoxville teams, 11-7 vs. Oak Ridge, and 9-3 vs. Blount County since 1996. In the playoffs they are 6-2 vs. Knoxville area, 5-3 vs. Oak Ridge, and 2-2 vs. Blount County. Hmm...pretty good debate afterall. Now if you are referring to 4A and Maryville only then I would say that since the run began in 1997, Knoxville area has as many wins vs. Maryville as does NET...1 (Knox Central '99, MoWest '03) and the 1998 Elizabethton teams played a much closer game that year (20-16) than your Powell team (27-3) or Central (27-21). And say what you want about close games played by the Knoxville area, it still goes in the L column just like it does for the NET teams. I would say that NOBODY is getting it done but Maryville and that there is no debate about /thumb[1].gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":thumb:" border="0" alt="thumb[1].gif" />

 

I would say Blount County is w/in the Knoxville metro area. You failed to mention Alcoa and Fulton. You can draw a line between Alcoa-Fulton-Maryville back to Alcoa which makes a deadly football triangle. Few teams emerge unscathed.

 

I always considered mo-town kinda at the dividing line between Upper East Tennessee and the Knoxville Area just based on the fact that the Knoxville TV stations cover mo-town and when I worked at WJHL (TV-11 Johnson City) they usually only covered stories down around Greeneville, of course this was in the early 1990's. Of course this game is South v Maryville. These net records vs Knoxville records really have about as much to do with this game as the fact that South's colors are similar to Heritage which was the last local (Blount Co.) team to beat Maryville. Take it for what it is worth but really these are only things that make you go hmmmmmmmm?

 

I almost forgot: GO RED REBELS

[REBELRON]

In some ways the 2004 team was better than this years team. I think some area's this years team is better at is Receivers and defensive backs. As great as Cade Thompson was I think Brent Burnett is even better.Burnett has a much stronger arm. Another thing the 2004 team didn't have that this team has is Aaron Douglas.

 

If Maryville gets about 125yds rushing a game their offense will be unstoppable. Their passing game is the best in the state. I mentioned earlier in this thread about Aaron Douglas,Steven Shiver,Tyler Clendenen and Caleb Clement. One kid I forgot to mention was Chris Jordan. Jordan has the best set of hands on the team. Jordan is about 5'10 160lbs but has 4.65 speed and is quick as a cat. I wouldn't trade Maryville's receivers for anyone elses.

 

Tim Rodrigues and Thomas Shuler have stepped up. Tim is around 6'1 190lbs. He runs hard and he is tough. Thomas Shuler is around 5'9 175lbs and runs a 4.5 He is the fastest kid on the team.

 

Maryville's offensive line is small but quick and athletic. They average 210lbs a man. They are well coached and disciplined. David Ellis does a masterful job with them.

 

Maryville's defensive line is very good. Justin Smith is a stellar defensive end. He is 6' 250lbs and can run well. Todd Hollingsworth is 6'1 245lbs and runs under a 4.7 He is quick as a cat. I haven't seen anyone be able to block him. Josh Cantwell is 5'10 235lbs and he is a tough guy. Cantwell is a lunch bucket type of guy. Brett Wadham and Zack Mobius split time at the other end spot. Wadham is 6'210 pounds. He is a rock. Mobius is around 190 lbs but he is very quick. Brad Heath has played a lot at DT lately. He is 6'220 lbs.

 

Secondary is awesome. Clement,Shiver,Clendenen,Jordan usually start. Because Jordan and Clement had some injuries other kids have stepped up. Tyler Martin,Jamal Brazen and Will Lairmore have stepped up.

 

Linebacker was a concern before the season started. All those guys except Jordan Halsne weigh less than 200 lbs. But! All of them except Halsne can run a 4.7 or better. Cody McCoy runs a 4.5 They are small but tough as nails.

 

Sullivan South will definately he a much harder challenge than TN High was in 2004. TN High got shell shocked and never recovered. TN High didn't have anyone like Phillips either. Watching highlights of Phillips he reminds me a lot of Tim Tebow.